The Axe Falls...Tick Tock

BEFORE November’s election, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives solemnly promised that they would cut spending by $100 billion this year alone if voters put their party in charge. Voters did, in the House at least, and on February 19th the new Republican majority repaid the compliment by approving cuts of $100 billion in the budget Barack Obama proposed for last year (compared with the short-term “continuing” spending resolutions Congress has actually adopted, the cut is only $61 billion). The hitch is that the measure will not become law, since the Democrats who control the Senate, not to mention the president with his veto pen, are implacably opposed to it. With the continuing resolution due to expire on March 4th, there is little time to work out a compromise, and little evidence either side wants one.

The cuts the House approved are swingeing by Washington’s standards. They constitute an unprecedented reduction of some 10% in non-defence discretionary spending, meaning all government programmes bar mandatory entitlement schemes and defence (see chart). Food-safety inspections, oversight of financial institutions, college scholarships for the poor, nutrition schemes for mothers and babies and other seemingly unobjectionable items would all be scaled down. Funding for pet Democratic causes, such as public broadcasting, regulating greenhouse-gas emissions and Mr Obama’s health-care reforms, would be eliminated altogether. There were even some cuts to homeland security and defence—normally a sacred cow for Republicans. The party’s fiscal hawks teamed up with Democrats, for example, to approve an amendment that would scrap a programme to develop a second engine for a military jet.



Despite such worrying portents, the leaders of both parties say they want to strike a deal before March 4th, to avoid a government shutdown. Moderate Republicans, in particular, seem fearful of a repeat of earlier budget battles that led to shutdowns in 1995-96, when Bill Clinton managed to paint the Republican majority in Congress as extreme and recalcitrant. Whether they can persuade their extreme and recalcitrant colleagues of the wisdom of holding back is another matter. The party’s top brass, after all, had originally proposed much smaller cuts, only to be overruled by the lower ranks.

The Senate’s Democrats are not making things any easier. They say that with Congress in recess this week, there will not be time to hammer out a deal before March 4th. Instead, they say, Congress should extend the government’s authority to continue spending at current levels for another month or so. John Boehner, the House speaker, says he will not agree to any extension that does not entail cuts. A group of moderate senators (see article) are trying to help. But time is short, and the willingness of the Republican rank and file to compromise uncertain.