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Monday, February 7, 2011

Life is a series of up's and down's...at least in the USA housing market

As of October 2010, Las Vegas has seen a decline of 57.0% from its peak. Phoenix is not far behind with -53.4%, followed by Miami’s -48.7% and Tampa’s -43.2%. On a relative basis, only two markets – Dallas and Denver – have not seen their total decline fall below -10%. As of October 2010, their declines from their peak value measure -8.2% and -9.8%, respectively.
As of October 2010, the composite housing prices were still above their spring 2009 lows; however, six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009. California markets appear to have remained fairly healthy after bottoming in the spring of 2009. San Francisco was up 18.0% since its 2009 trough, while San Diego and Los Angeles were up 10.8% and 9.3%, respectively. Only Washington DC, +12.5%, and Minneapolis, +11.7%, have seen similar recovery from recent lows.

Since 2000, the area traditionally defined as the Sun Belt – Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada –experienced the largest run-up in prices and, subsequently, experienced the largest downturn. While the declines in these markets are quite large, the increases in prices during 2004-2006 were equally dramatic. In 2004, Las Vegas witnessed a peak annual growth rate of +53.2%; Phoenix was not far behind with +49.3%. In addition, Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa all registered peak annual growth rates above +30% during that time. Other MSAs, such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, and Detroit, never saw their peak annual growth rates move above 10%.
As a particular note, Detroit's prices are where they stood back in 1994, Wow!!!

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